submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental Pound forecast for today
Sterling is focused on foreign factors and ignores domestic negative dataThe GBP is still moving according to foreign factors because of the lack of important events in the economic calendar and expectations of the virtual gathering of the world’s central bankers in Jackson Hole. Investors pay no attention to the negative factors associated with Brexit, twin deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit), and the first-ever excess of the UK national debt over £2 trillion. Forex analysts suggest that if the euro breaks higher than $1.2 and moves on towards $1.25, the sterling will easily reach $1.35.
The options market is surprisingly stable without any response to Brexit issues. A year ago, the pound volatility will higher than that of the Mexican peso, and the market was shaken. The sterling volatility over the next 3 months is below the average for the last 5 years and slightly above the euro volatility. Taking into account that the EU-UK talks are close to the critical point, the market stability looks surprising. It suggests that either investors are confident in a soon Brexit deal or they do not expect that any of the parties will add uncertainty. However, a 60% likelihood of a Brexit deal doesn’t rule out a 40% chance of a no-deal divorce. It seems that after any failure in the previous negotiations, investors expect a breakthrough in each next round.
According to JP Morgan, a no-deal Brexit will contract the UK GDP by 5.5%, and the UK economy is already in a recession. There are several bearish drivers for the sterling. The twin deficits, the Conservatives’ discontent with the growth of the UK national debt, the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, and the potentially vulnerable labor market due to the expiration of the financial aid package in October. According to Bloomberg, the programs, which have protected four million jobs should end in October. That could hit the labor market, slow down the GDP in the fourth quarter, and result in a boost of the UK QE by £100 billion.
Dynamics of UK jobs supported by state programs
So, the pound has many flaws. However, it has caught the tailwinds and responds to the increase in the global risk appetite and the Fed’s willingness to weaken the US dollar through the average inflation targeting. Nonetheless, Jerome Powell may not announce such a plan in Jackson Hole. Furthermore, the S&P500 may not be close to the all-time highs for a long time. According to the majority of 200 experts surveyed by Reuters, global stock indexes at the end of 2020 are likely to be lower than the levels hit in February, which means a correction down from the current levels.
Dynamics of GBP/USD and S&P 500
Source: Trading Economics
In my opinion, investors ignore the UK's negative domestic factors because they are focused on Powell’s upcoming speech. If he announces the Fed’s average inflation targeting, the GBP/USD may break through the August highs and continue rallying up to 1.337 and 1.35. Otherwise, the sterling could go down below the support at 1.315.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
TOKYO - A surprise improvement in Chinese factory activity supported the yuan and Australian dollar on Monday, and provided a broader boost to global investor confidence, helping the dollar gain against the safe-haven yen.
That pushed the Australian dollar, often seen as an investment proxy for Chinese economic prospects, 0.15 percent higher to $0.7107.
The Chinese yuan also gained 0.2 percent in offshore trade to 6.711 to the dollar.
The U.S. dollar rose 0.15 percent to 110.93 yen, extending its advance from the 1-1/2-month low of 109.70 it touched a week ago.
The Mexican peso gained 0.4 percent to 19.347 to the dollar while the South African rand gained more than 1.2 percent to 14.317 per dollar.
The Turkish lira eased 0.9 percent to 5.591 per dollar after President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party was set to lose control of the capital Ankara for the first time in a local election and he appeared to concede defeat in the country's largest city, Istanbul.
Australiasubmitted by Markets-Cube to u/Markets-Cube [link] [comments]
After a discontinuous session, the ASX 200 index completed an increase of 0.4% to 5,830.3 when it was headed by banks and energy companies. Nevertheless, the ASX 200 fell for the second month in a row, decreasing by 6.1%, and fell in terms of financial and resource reserves. This year, the index fell by 3.9%, and in the past two years, food has stabilized. For the day, ANZ rose 1.1% after its earnings for the whole year met expected expectations. AMP combined 6.9%, while the NIB insurer received 6.3% after updating the revenue guide.
The technically heavy Nasdaq Composite rose by 2.7%, although it fell by about 8.5% in October and was on its way to the worst month since 2008. The S&P 500 gained 1.9% and was on pace to rise to successive sessions for the first time since September 20, but still marked the largest one-month drop in more than six years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 406 points, or 1.6%, to 25281, reducing its October drop to about 4.5%. Facebook climbed 4.6%, and Netflix, Alphabet, and Amazon added at least 5%.
The WSJ dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of 16 others, rose less than 0.1% to 90.91. The dollar rose 0.2% against the euro and bet 1.1% on the Mexican peso. Futures on futures on federal funds, which investors used to bet on central bank policies, showed a 32% chance that politicians would increase at least three times by the end of June, compared with 28% on Tuesday.
European stocks rose 1.3%, as the positive sentiment after optimistic trading in the US and Asia outweighed weak European economic data. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 4.58 points to 360.11, while the DAX increased 1.1% and the CAC 40 rose 2%. Austrian oil company OMV is one of the largest risers, which is 5.8% higher than solid 3Q results.
The Japanese Nikkei rose 2.1% after convincing earnings reports after Tuesday’s close. In October, the official PMI was 50.2% compared with the consensus of 50.6 and 50.8 for the previous month, which is the lowest since July 2016. The non-financial PMI index showed a similar weakness - 53.1 against 54.1 in September, which is the lowest in 14 months. Despite this, Chinese stocks rose, while the Shanghai Composite rose by about 1.3% and the smaller - the Shenzhen Composite - by 1.3%. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong also grew by 1.6%, and Sunny Optical - by 5%, AAC - by 4.7%. Tencent rebounded by more than 5%, AIA added 1.8%, and Xiaomi rose 4%.
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USAsubmitted by Markets-Cube to u/Markets-Cube [link] [comments]
US stocks rose on the first day of the fourth quarter after the US and Canada finished last minute at the end of Sunday to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 192.90 points, or 0.7%, to 26651.21, increasing advances after the publication of its largest figure for the quarter of the year. The S&P 500 climbed 10.61 points, or 0.4%, to 2,924.59, stopping almost to a record level, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 9.05 points, or 0.1%, to 8,037.30, which caused by losses in a number of biotech stocks.
Oil for November deliveries rose by 2.05, or 2.8%, to 75.30 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, reaching the highest level since November 2014 and releasing the multi-year peak for the first time since June. Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 2.25, or 2.7%, to 84.98, and reached a nearly four-year high. Rates that large manufacturers, such as Saudi Arabia, will not be able to easily fill the supply gap, pushed both US and global prices by about 25% per year.
The Canadian dollar soared on the news: one dollar last bought C 1.2799 versus C 1.2911 on Friday evening in New York. The Mexican peso was trading at the strongest level against the dollar. The dollar received 18,724 pesos in recent trade, compared with 18.7135 pesos. The US dollar index ICE, rose 0.2% to 95.279. The dollar rose to Y113.95 versus Japanese yen from Y113.69. The euro is trading at 1.1578, compared with 1.1616 on Friday. The dollar has slightly changed compared to the major competitors after the Institute for Industrial Supply Industrial Supply Index fell to 59.8% in September from 61.3%.
The Japanese Nikkei drove to a weaker yen to a 27-year close high, and trade problems were postponed in Taiwan, as this market scored a maximum of 1 month. The worst market was the Philippines, which is 1% below the September minimum by 7.4%, which is the most in two years. The Nikkei rose 0.5%, while the Kospi index in Korea fell 0.2%. S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8% to 36,526.14. Shares of the bank led to growth, while the bank "Yes" jumped by 9.7%, and the State Bank of India and ICICI Bank rose by 3%. Taiex rose 0.4% to 11051.80, the highest close since August 31. Lens manufacturer Largan Precision, which fell 23% in September.
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Emerging currencies, like the South African rand and the Mexican peso, held onto to gains having surged, as investors in emerging markets registered relief that Turkey's central bank had hiked its policy rate to 24 percent to restore confidence in the lira.
The greenback took a hit overnight after the U.S. consumer price index, the government's broadest inflation gauge, rose just 0.2 percent in August and less than the 0.3 percent projected by analysts in a Reuters poll.
The dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies was a shade lower at 94.491 after slipping 0.3 percent on Thursday, when it touched 94.428, its lowest since Aug. 31.
The euro inched up 0.05 percent to $1.1695 after gaining more than 0.5 percent overnight when it brushed a two-week high of $1.1701.
The lira surged after Turkey's central bank raised its benchmark one-week repo rate by 625 basis points to 24 percent on Thursday, in a bid to stabilize the currency, which had slumped to a record low against the dollar a month ago.
Following the lira's rally, the South African rand gained 1.3 percent against the dollar on Thursday and the Mexican peso rose 1 percent.
NEW YORK The U.S. dollar fell on Friday, adding to its worst week since April 2016 against a basket of major currencies, and having surrendered the gains made since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six world currencies, has shed more than 2 percent this week.
Uproar over Trump's recent firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was overseeing an investigation into possible links between the president's team and Russia, has pressured the dollar.
"The dollar overall, across the board, has been getting beat up this week and a lot of that has to do with the political risk here in DC," said John Doyle, director of markets at Tempus Inc in Washington.
The dollar fell 0.3 percent against the yen to 111.14 JPY= and had its first weekly drop in five against the Japanese currency.
The dollar fell 3.3 percent against the Brazilian real BRL=. Oil-linked emerging market currencies like the Mexican MXN= and Colombian pesos COP= and the Russian rouble RUB= gained around 1 percent versus the dollar, also boosted by a rise in oil prices.
NEW YORK The U.S. dollar rose to its highest in 14 years against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Tuesday after data showed solid growth in U.S. manufacturing.
DXY rose to 103.820, its highest level since December 2002 after data showed U.S. factory activity accelerated to a two-year high last month and construction spending rose to its highest in 10-1/2 years in November.
"That suggests the is going to have to remain active in this kind of environment. So this on the whole is a generally constructive set of data for the dollar here in a time of the year where typically the dollar does quite well."
The euro EUR= fell to a 14-year low against the dollar, dropping to $1.0342 after the data's release.
The dollar gained against the yen JPY= as well, reaching 118.60 yen, its highest since Dec. 15 and just a hair below its highest point since February as a holiday in Japan thinned Asian trading.
The greenback rose to its highest against the Mexican peso MXN= since Nov. 11, the day it hit its all-time high, after Ford Motor Co said would cancel a planned $1.6 billion factory in Mexico and instead invest $700 million in a Michigan plant due to sagging demand for small cars.
U.S. Dollar/Mexican Peso forex price quote with latest real-time prices, charts, financials, latest news, technical analysis and opinions. Kitco free live Mexican Peso to US Dollar currency charts and quotes Last week, we discussed how Yen and Emerging Markets (such as the Mexican Peso) were being sold and currencies such as the US Dollar and the Euro were bought. Our reasoning was that Japan’s largest pension fund (GPIF) was selling Yen for reallocation. At the time, stock markets were not as fearful of the spread of the coronavirus as they have been over the last few days. In what feels like years ago, on February 27 th, we wrote about the fall of the Mexican Peso. Fundamentally, we discussed how USD/MXN was heading higher as the carry trade was being unwound. As stocks moved lower, traders had to sell pesos and buy back US Dollar and Euros. As a result, both USD/MXN and EUR/MXN both were moving higher. Mexican Peso marked the fourth weekly decline vs the Dollar with price settling well off fresh record highs. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/MXN weekly chart. In finance, an MXN to USD exchange rate is the Mexican Peso to >US Dollar rate at which Mexican Peso to US Dollar will be exchanged for another. It is also regarded as the value of MXN to USD in relation to another currency. For example, an interbank exchange rate of 114 Japanese yen to the United States dollar means that ¥114 will be exchanged for each US$1 or that US$1 will be exchanged for ... The Mexican peso fell almost 4% at one point and last traded at 20.905 per dollar, down almost 3% while the offshore Chinese yuan fell 0.8% to 6.7362 to the dollar, hitting one-month low at one point.
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