Alles zu Arbitrage Trading, Strategie & Software

Learn how to trade using Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies

Learn how to trade using Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies submitted by jackcarey123 to u/jackcarey123 [link] [comments]

Learn how to trade using Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies

Learn how to trade using Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies submitted by jackcarey123 to u/jackcarey123 [link] [comments]

Learn how to trade using Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies

Learn how to trade using Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies submitted by jackcarey123 to u/jackcarey123 [link] [comments]

Learn how to trade using Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies

Learn how to trade using Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies submitted by jackcarey123 to u/jackcarey123 [link] [comments]

How to Trade using Easy Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies

How to Trade using Easy Forex Arbitrage Trading Strategies submitted by jackcarey123 to u/jackcarey123 [link] [comments]

Forex Arbitrage – How One Can Use an Arbitrage Strategy to Profit in Forex Trading

Forex Arbitrage – How One Can Use an Arbitrage Strategy to Profit in Forex Trading submitted by ososru to Bitcoin4free [link] [comments]

Forex Arbitrage – How One Can Use an Arbitrage Strategy to Profit in Forex Trading

Forex Arbitrage – How One Can Use an Arbitrage Strategy to Profit in Forex Trading submitted by Rufflenator to 3bitcoins [link] [comments]

How to Calculate Arbitrage in Forex

How to Calculate Arbitrage in Forex submitted by cryptodev to cryptodev [link] [comments]

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submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

Arbitrage, HFT, Quant and Other Automatic Trading Strategies in FX | Finance Magnates

fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant

Challenges when implementing quant strategies in FX Lack of data availability in foreign exchange trading, when compared to equities, is one of the major obstacles in implementing quant strategies in FX. Since the Forex market is regarded as an over-the-counter (OTC) market and does not transact on a centralized exchange, there is little uniform data available. The FX ECNs only publish approximately 15% of their data while the rest of the market trades “in the dark”.
Only an estimated 6% of the market is covered by good quality data, and algos need to have data, such as volume traded per unit of time, in order to properly slice a large order into smaller pieces. Also, many traders underestimate the cost for quality data. You can get some of the historical tick by tick data dating back to 1992, but it will cost you tens of thousands of dollars.How to implement auto trading strategies on margin FX brokers’ platforms? So is it possible to implement alpha generation algorithms with .....
Continue reading at: https://www.financemagnates.com/analysis-retail-fx/arbitrage-hft-quant-and-other-automatic-trading-strategies-in-fx/
submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

Credit risk

Hey! I’ve got a really ridiculous lecturer. He’s set an assignment to set the credit risk in currency arbitrage during COVID-19.
This makes no sense to me, as quite simply I understood currency arbitrage to be taking out currency pairs and settling almost instantly? Or taking advantage of a mispost. In which case risk is so limited.
He may mean forex trading but any tips on how to mitigate this type of risk?
submitted by Moraghg to Forex [link] [comments]

Taking a break from FIRE to go backpacking

Hi everyone! Taken a few big life decisions lately and thought I would share them here as they have a lot to do with FIRE. I guess you could call me CoastFI.

Mid-30s DINK couple working in Mumbai, have been in India all my working life. No NRI story here! Spouse and I are both MBAs.

The personal bit
Have dreamed about taking a year off to go backpacking ever since I was 25. Given the corporate culture – was too afraid to do that till now. I have not yet reached my FIRE target the way I defined it 3 years ago. But I’ve decided to take a break and resign to go backpacking for a year.

Had dreamed of a few trips for years – plan on travelling from Bombay to Beijing completely overland – through trains and buses. This was not possible till 2018 when Myanmar opened up their visa policy. Also dream of doing the Camino Santiago – it is a 500 km pilgrimage that starts from France and ends in western Spain. Both these trips will take a few months minimum so there was no way I could do them while working in the corporate world. I also want to travel to South America.

I resigned from my job last week. My organization is trying to retain me by offering a new role. They have also offered to give me a 3 month sabbatical. Let’s see how it goes – I am not going to accept anything unless it is in writing. The sabbatical is being promised with too many conditions so I don’t think I am going to accept it – for example they are asking that I go on the sabbatical from April 2020 – unfortunately that means I won’t be able to do the Bombay to Beijing trip because it will be very bad weather in Myanmar at the time – so am going to wait and watch without having too high expectations. I will come back in a year and find a job. Got a call from a few recruiters and I explained my situation – they asked me to contact them once I am back so they can share any opportunities. My boss from my old company now works in E-com and has offered me a job on my return as well.

My spouse will continue to work here – they recently rejoined their old boss and mentor at a job that really excites them. Till a few months ago we planned on taking the trip together but now that they got this job offer we took the joint decision for me to take this trip solo. Maybe we will take a joint trip together at 40! My spouse is incredibly supportive and has always been. I’m very very grateful that I have them on my side.

The financial bit

We are at 35X of normal expenses (current expenses – some buffer for Mumbai rents) and 44X of LeanFire expenses (normal expenses – discretionary travel expenses). My target is 45X of normal expenses for final FIRE. I also want to save up for a medical emergency corpus for me and my spouse, as well as for my spouse's parents who are dependent on us. The split is about 65:35 between me : my spouse (mainly because I saved about 75% right from my first job). All our corpus is from our savings from our job – no inheritance, no side hustles, no off-site, nothing.

Most of our funds are in equity and debt funds, with a big chunk in VPF. Due to some past mistakes I have too much in debt (little more than 60%) and am slowly moving into equity. Not included in this corpus – my spouse also has a house in Tier 3 city bought for their parents (about 30 lacs).

No plans on buying a house – we have both my spouse’s house and my parent’s house (I am an only child). We are consciously childfree, so no kid’s marriage and education goals as well.

I plan on funding the trip mainly through my holdings in arbitrage funds (have a fair amount in this because I had invested in these pre-LTCG). I have got myself a NiYo card as it has zero forex fees. Will keep a few other cards as backup as well. I still have not found a good travel insurance which will cover me for such a long period. I also do not have clarity on how my VPF will be taxed in this period.

A very rough estimate yields a cost of about 1.5 lacs per month for my trip. It can go lower as well because a lot of my trip is overland and I am used to budget travel – however since I am solo, would not like to compromise on safety either. This will be a dent on our corpus – but since my spouse will continue to earn and save in this period, that’s not too bad.

I have personally always been a good student, Type A personality, very risk averse by nature. I can be a bit of a workaholic as well. Lately have decided to relax a bit, not be so hard on myself and enjoy life a little. This felt like the right time to do something I had dreamed about for more than a decade. I am honestly a bit nervous – what If I don’t enjoy it! What if I don’t get a good job on my return! But this is a good test run for FIRE. My HR jokingly asked me if this was a midlife crisis and I said that this was a midlife celebration instead!

I have been working towards FIRE from 2010. I may not be exactly there, but the time for me to take a new step is here. Wish me luck!
submitted by caffeinewasmylife to FIREIndia [link] [comments]

In search of Team!

Im willing to teach how to earb fully passive, just by investing some bucks.(about 10$ will do)

So whats it all about?
Its about adshare company, which is fairly new, but the most promising. The catch here is, while everyone else is struggling with similar platforms, this platform still brings steady income every day.
How does it work? Easy. You have to deposit some funds (forgot to mention, you will need a bitcoin wallet), and thats quite it! For the next 125 days you will earn UP to 1% from your original deposit. (right now, while that covid is out there, earning are 0.8% up to 1% every day). After those 125 days, you will earn back your deposited money + precentage of interest.
How are this company making money?
This company is transperant, they expose everything about their earning streams. AS they claim: " Our company activities include investing in crypto trading, crypto arbitrage, forex-crypto arbitrage and forex trading over a solid, well-diversified portfolio. "
These are pretty safe, and whats the difference between this and other similar platforms? THEY HAVE MULTIPLE REVENUE STREAMS which allows you to earn despite all crisis.
If you are interested joining my team, and want to start to earn fully on autopilot, give me a DM!

Have a nice day!
(To join, you will need basic knowledge in technology and a crypto currency wallet)
submitted by Roltoons to MoneyMaking [link] [comments]

In search of team

Im willing to teach how to earn fully passive, just by investing some bucks.(about 10$ will do)

So whats it all about?
Its about adshare company, which is fairly new, but the most promising. The catch here is, while everyone else is struggling with similar platforms, this platform still brings steady income every day.
How does it work? Easy. You have to deposit some funds (forgot to mention, you will need a bitcoin wallet), and thats quite it! For the next 125 days you will earn UP to 1% from your original deposit. (right now, while that covid is out there, earning are 0.8% up to 1% every day). After those 125 days, you will earn back your deposited money + precentage of interest.
How are this company making money?
This company is transperant, they expose everything about their earning streams. AS they claim: " Our company activities include investing in crypto trading, crypto arbitrage, forex-crypto arbitrage and forex trading over a solid, well-diversified portfolio. "
These are pretty safe, and whats the difference between this and other similar platforms? THEY HAVE MULTIPLE REVENUE STREAMS which allows you to earn despite all crisis.
If you are interested joining my team, and want to start to earn fully on autopilot, give me a DM!

Have a nice day!
(To join, you will need basic knowledge in technology and a crypto currency wallet)
submitted by Roltoons to WorkOnlineJobs [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Relax Everyone, The High Frequency Trading Problem Is Over

fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #hft #forex #fx #crypto #gbpusd

Relax Everyone, The High Frequency Trading Problem Is Over You'll have noticed a number of people worrying over the high frequency trading (HFT) practices in the financial markets in recent years. Michael Lewis even wrote a whole book, Flash Boys, about how nefarious it all was. And there's undoubtedly people campaigning, right now, for markets to be protected from this practice. However, the truth is, just as with pretty much any other form of arbitrage that anyone has ever invented, whatever problems HFT may cause are solved by the markets themselves. And it's possible to point out that, right now, whatever those HFT problems were have indeed now been solved. We rather like the liquidity that it brings to the markets, we most certainly like the lower spreads that exist as a result of it. And HFT itself now seems to be a rather boring activity without any excess profits accruing to those who do it. It's a mature technology if you like, the panic and excitement is over.
And example.....
Continue reading at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/01/26/relax-everyone-the-high-frequency-trading-problem-is-ove#1010744b5641
submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

Brain Dump on Getting Out of the Army - Updated

I originally made this exact post around two years ago when I first started at my current employer. It may just be me but I feel like I’ve started to see more frequent posts about getting out of the Army lately so I figured I’d update my post and repost.
For context, I was an active duty Officer. I did four years at Bragg in the lovely 82nd Airborne and got out as a CPT at the four year mark. I spent almost 70 days on terminal leave watching game of thrones and started as a management consulting Associate at a Big 4 firm (Deloitte, KPMG, PwC, EY) on my ETS date. I don’t have a beautiful Harvard MBA. I don’t have an amazing name brand undergrad. I understand that this advice may not be as applicable for everyone depending on what you want you to do. Some of this unsolicited advice is good for everyone but somethings are more specific to industries that are historically harder to break into (consulting, banking, etc.)
I worked very hard at creating a seamless transition from the Army into corporate America and I learned a lot during the 12 months I focused on transitioning. I care about our Veterans and their success post-military should you decide to get out. I wanted to dump some of my thoughts here and things I’ve learned in the hopes I can help some of you. I am going to be very blunt because there are a lot of misconceptions surrounding getting out. I look forward to your shit talking in the comments.
I have friends, Officer and Enlisted, that have followed the same path and took the same steps that I did. I have Enlisted friends in Ivy League MBA programs, friends at Wharton, JPMorgan Chase, Deloitte, Goldman Sachs, Google, Facebook, big time consulting firms, engineering firms, etc. I also have friends both Officer and Enlisted that didn’t do shit to plan ahead and are feeling the burn.
I’ll leave you with the best analogy I’ve heard about getting out of the military. In the Army, you don’t do anything of value without extensive preparation. The 3 shop kills themselves during the MDMP process refining the plan, the companies and platoons do rock drills, walk-through talk-throughs, PCCs and PCIs, comms checks, weapons checks, blah blah blah. That pattern of preparation and attention to executing a plan doesn’t change when you start to get out. You develop a strategy, target employers, networking contacts, you think through your answers to hundreds of interview questions, you rehearse your elevator pitch and your answer to “tell me about yourself”. Getting out of the Army isn’t the time to start slacking on preparation.
I could ramble on about this topic forever but I won’t. If you have questions, shoot me a note. If you want to tell me to fuck off, I’ll lovingly accept that too.
Edit: sounds like there is a lot of interest in consulting. I'd encourage you to check out Consulting to read people bitching about the industry the way everyone here bitches about the army, just with a tad more elitism.
submitted by standardnameline to army [link] [comments]

Trump Didn’t Kill the Global Trade System. He Split It in Two.

This article is taken from the Wall Street Journal written about nine months ago and sits behind a a paywall, so I decided to copy and paste it here. This article explains Trump's policies toward global trade and what has actually happened so far. I think the article does a decent job of explaining the Trade War. While alot has happenedsince the article was written, I still think its relevant.
However, what is lacking in the article, like many articles on the trade war, is it doesn't really explain the history of US trade policy, the laws that the US administration is using to place tariffs on China and the official justification for the US President in enacting tariffs against China. In my analysis I will cover those points.

SUMMARY

When Trump entered the White House people feared he would dismantle the global system the US and its allies had built over the last 75 years, but he hasn't. He has realign into two systems. One between the US and its allies which looks similar to the one built since the 1980s with a few of quota and tariffs. As the article points out
Today, Korus and Nafta have been replaced by updated agreements(one not yet ratified) that look much like the originals. South Korea accepted quotas on steel. Mexico and Canada agreed to higher wages, North American content requirements and quotas for autos. Furthermore, the article points out Douglas Irwin, an economist and trade historian at Dartmouth College, calls these results the “status quo with Trumpian tweaks: a little more managed trade sprinkled about for favored industries. It’s not good, but it’s not the destruction of the system.” Mr. Trump’s actions so far affect only 12% of U.S. imports, according to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. In 1984, 21% of imports were covered by similar restraints, many imposed by Mr. Reagan, such as on cars, steel, motorcycles and clothing. Protectionist instincts go so far in the US, there are strong lobby groups for both protectionist and freetrade in the US.
The second reflects a emerging rivalry between the US and China. Undo some of the integration that followed China accession to the WTO. Two questions 1) How far is the US willing to decouple with China 2) Can it persuade allies to join.
The second is going to be difficult because China's economic ties are greater than they were between the Soviets, and China isn't waging an ideological struggle. Trump lacks Reagan commitment to alliance and free trade. The status quo with China is crumbling Dan Sullivan, a Republican senator from Alaska, personifies these broader forces reshaping the U.S. approach to the world. When Mr. Xi visited the U.S. in 2015, Mr. Sullivan urged his colleagues to pay more attention to China’s rise. On the Senate floor, he quoted the political scientist Graham Allison: “War between the U.S. and China is more likely than recognized at the moment.” Last spring, Mr. Sullivan went to China and met officials including Vice President Wang Qishan. They seemed to think tensions with the U.S. will fade after Mr. Trump leaves the scene, Mr. Sullivan recalled. “I just said, ‘You are completely misreading this.’” The mistrust, he told them, is bipartisan, and will outlast Mr. Trump. both Bush II and Obama tried to change dialogue and engagement, but by the end of his term, Obama was questioning the approach. Trump has declared engagement. “We don’t like it when our allies steal our ideas either, but it’s a much less dangerous situation,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute whose views align with the administration’s more hawkish officials. “We’re not worried about the war-fighting capability of Japan and Korea because they’re our friends.”
The article also points out unlike George Kennan in 1946 who made a case for containing the Soviet Union, the US hasn't explicitly made a case for containing the Soviets, Trump's administration hasn't, because as the the article explains its divided Michael Pillsbury a Hudson Institute scholar close to the Trump team, see 3 scenarios
Pillsbury thinks the third is most likely to happen, even though the administration hasn't said that it has adopted that policy. The US is stepping efforts to draw in other trading partners. The US, EU and Japan have launched a WTO effort to crack down on domestic subsidies and technology transfers requirement. US and Domestic concerns with prompted some countries to restrict Huawei. The US is also seeking to walloff China from other trade deals. However, there are risk with this strategy

ARTICLE

Trump Didn’t Kill the Global Trade System. He Split It in Two.

INTRODUCTION

My main criticism of this article is it tries like the vast majority of articles to fit US trade actions in the larger context of US geopolitical strategy. Even the author isn't certain "The first goes to the heart of Mr. Trump’s goal. If his aim is to hold back China’s advance, economists predict he will fail.". If you try to treat the trade "war" and US geopolitical strategy toward China as one, you will find yourself quickly frustrated and confused. If you treat them separately with their different set of stakeholders and histories, were they intersect with regards to China, but diverge. During the Cold War, trade policy toward the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc was subordinated to geopolitical concerns. For Trump, the trade issues are more important than geopolitical strategy. His protectionist trade rhetoric has been fairly consistent since 1980s. In his administration, the top cabinet members holding economic portfolios, those of Commerce, Treasury and US Trade Representative are the same people he picked when he first took office. The Director of the Economic Council has changed hands once, its role isn't as important as the National Security Advisor. While State, Defense, CIA, Homeland Security, UN Ambassador, National Security Advisor have changed hands at least once. Only the Director of National Intelligence hasn't changed.
International Trade makes up 1/4 of the US economy, and like national security its primarily the responsibility of the Federal government. States in the US don't implement their own tariffs. If you add the impact of Treasury policy and how it relates to capital flows in and out of the US, the amounts easily exceed the size of the US economy. Furthermore, because of US Dollar role as the reserve currency and US control of over global system the impact of Treasury are global. Trade policy and investment flows runs through two federal departments Commerce and Treasury and for trade also USTR. Defense spending makes up 3.3% of GDP, and if you add in related homeland security its at most 4%. Why would anyone assume that these two realms be integrated let alone trade policy subordinate to whims of a national security bureaucracy in most instances? With North Korea or Iran, trade and investment subordinate themselves to national security, because to Treasury and Commerce bureaucrats and their affiliated interest groups, Iran and the DPRK are well, economic midgets, but China is a different matter.
The analysis will be divided into four sections. The first will be to provide a brief overview of US trade policy since 1914. The second section will discuss why the US is going after China on trade issues, and why the US has resorted using a bilateral approach as opposed to going through the WTO. The third section we will talk about how relations with China is hashed out in the US.
The reason why I submitted this article, because there aren't many post trying to explain US-China Trade War from a trade perspective. Here is a post titled "What is the Reasons for America's Trade War with China, and not one person mentioned Article 301 or China's WTO Commitments. You get numerous post saying that Huawei is at heart of the trade war. Its fine, but if you don't know what was inside the USTR Investigative report that lead to the tariffs. its like skipping dinner and only having dessert When the US President, Donald J Trump, says he wants to negotiate a better trade deal with other countries, and has been going on about for the last 35 years, longer than many of you have been alive, why do people think that the key issues with China aren't primarily about trade at the moment.

OVERVIEW OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE ORIENTATION

Before 1940s, the US could be categorized as a free market protectionist economy. For many this may seem like oxymoron, how can an economy be free market and protectionist? In 1913, government spending made up about 7.5% of US GDP, in the UK it was 13%, and for Germany 18% (Public Spending in the 20th Century A Global Perspective: Ludger Schuknecht and Vito Tanzi - 2000). UK had virtual zero tariffs, while for manufactured goods in France it was 20%, 13% Germany, 9% Belgium and 4% Netherlands. For raw materials and agricultural products, it was almost zero. In contrast, for the likes of United States, Russia and Japan it was 44%, 84% and 30% respectively. Even though in 1900 United States was an economic powerhouse along with Germany, manufactured exports only made up 30% of exports, and the US government saw tariffs as exclusively a domestic policy matter and didn't see tariffs as something to be negotiated with other nations. The US didn't have the large constituency to push the government for lower tariffs abroad for their exports like in Britain in the 1830-40s (Reluctant Partners: A History of Multilateral Trade Cooperation, 1850-2000).
The Underwood Tariffs Act of 1913 which legislated the income tax, dropped the tariffs to 1850 levels levels.Until 16th amendment was ratified in 1913 making income tax legal, all US federal revenue came from excise and tariffs. In contrast before 1914, about 50% of UK revenue came from income taxes. The reason for US reluctance to introduced income tax was ideological and the United State's relative weak government compared to those in Europe. After the First World War, the US introduced the Emergency Tariff Act of 1921, than the Fordney–McCumber Tariff of 1922 followed by a Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930. Contrary to popular opinion, the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 had a small negative impact on the economy, since imports and exports played a small part of the US economy, and the tariffs were lower than the average that existed from 1850-1914.
Immediately after the Second World War, when the US economy was the only industrialized economy left standing, the economic focus was on rehabilitation and monetary stability. There was no grandiose and ideological design. Bretton Woods system linked the US dollar to gold to create monetary stability, and to avoid competitive devaluation and tariffs that plagued the world economy after Britain took itself off the gold in 1931. The US$ was the natural choice, because in 1944 2/3 of the world's gold was in the US. One reason why the Marshall Plan was created was to alleviate the chronic deficits Europeans countries had with the US between 1945-50. It was to rebuild their economies so they could start exports good to the US. Even before it was full implemented in 1959, it was already facing problems, the trade surpluses that the US was running in the 1940s, turned to deficits as European and Japanese economies recovered. By 1959, Federal Reserves foreign liabilities had already exceeded its gold reserves. There were fears of a run on the US gold supply and arbitrage. A secondary policy of the Bretton woods system was curbs on capital outflows to reduce speculation on currency pegs, and this had a negative impact on foreign investment until it was abandoned in 1971. It wasn't until the 1980s, where foreign investment recovered to levels prior to 1914. Factoring out the big spike in global oil prices as a result of the OPEC cartel, it most likely wasn't until the mid-1990s that exports as a % of GDP had reached 1914 levels.
Until the 1980s, the US record regarding free trade and markets was mediocre. The impetus to remove trade barriers in Europe after the Second World War was driven by the Europeans themselves. The EEC already had a custom union in 1968, Canada and the US have yet to even discuss implementing one. Even with Canada it took the US over 50 years to get a Free Trade Agreement. NAFTA was inspired by the success of the EEC. NAFTA was very much an elite driven project. If the Americans put the NAFTA to a referendum like the British did with the EEC in the seventies, it most likely wouldn't pass. People often look at segregation in the US South as a political issue, but it was economic issue as well. How could the US preach free trade, when it didn't have free trade in its own country. Segregation was a internal non-tariff barrier. In the first election after the end of the Cold War in 1992, Ross Perot' based most of independent run for the Presidency on opposition to NAFTA. He won 19% of the vote. Like Ross Perot before him, Donald Trump is not the exception in how America has handled tariffs since the founding of the Republic, but more the norm.
The embrace of free trade by the business and political elite can be attributed to two events. After the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, a strong vested interest in the US in the form of multinationals and Wall Street emerged advocating for removal of tariffs and more importantly the removal of restrictions on free flow of capital, whether direct foreign investment in portfolio investment. However, the political class embrace of free trade and capital only really took off after the collapse of the Soviet Union propelled by Cold War triumphalism.
As mentioned by the article, the US is reverting back to a pre-WTO relations with China. As Robert Lighthizer said in speech in 2000
I guess my prescription, really, is to move back to more of a negotiating kind of a settlement. Return to WTO and what it really was meant to be. Something where you have somebody make a decision but have it not be binding.
The US is using financial and legal instruments developed during the Cold War like its extradition treaties (with Canada and Europe), and Section 301. Here is a very good recent article about enforcement commitment that China will make.‘Painful’ enforcement ahead for China if trade war deal is reached with US insisting on unilateral terms
NOTE: It is very difficult to talk about US-China trade war without a basic knowledge of global economic history since 1914. What a lot of people do is politicize or subordinate the economic history to the political. Some commentators think US power was just handed to them after the Second World War, when the US was the only industrialized economy left standing. The dominant position of the US was temporary and in reality its like having 10 tonnes of Gold sitting in your house, it doesn't automatically translate to influence. The US from 1945-1989 was slowly and gradually build her influence in the non-Communist world. For example, US influence in Canada in the 1960s wasn't as strong as it is now. Only 50% of Canadian exports went to the US in 1960s vs 80% at the present moment.

BASIS OF THE US TRADE DISCUSSION WITH CHINA

According to preliminary agreement between China and the US based on unnamed sources in the Wall Street Journal article US, China close in on Trade Deal. In this article it divides the deal in two sections. The first aspects have largely to do with deficits and is political.
As part of a deal, China is pledging to help level the playing field, including speeding up the timetable for removing foreign-ownership limitations on car ventures and reducing tariffs on imported vehicles to below the current auto tariff of 15%. Beijing would also step up purchases of U.S. goods—a tactic designed to appeal to President Trump, who campaigned on closing the bilateral trade deficit with China. One of the sweeteners would be an $18 billion natural-gas purchase from Cheniere Energy Inc., people familiar with the transaction said.
The second part will involve the following.
  1. Commitment Regarding Industrial Policy
  2. Provisions to protect IP
  3. Mechanism which complaints by US companies can be addressed
  4. Bilateral meetings adjudicate disputes. If talks don't produce agreement than US can raise tariffs unilaterally
This grouping of conditions is similar to the points filled under the 301 investigation which serve the basis for initiating the tariffs. I have been reading some sources that say this discussion on this second group of broader issues could only be finalized later
The official justifications for placing the tariffs on Chinese goods is found under the March 2018 investigation submitted by the office of the President to Congress titled FINDINGS OF THE INVESTIGATION INTO CHINA’S ACTS, POLICIES, AND PRACTICES RELATED TO TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, AND INNOVATION UNDER SECTION 301 OF THE TRADE ACT OF 1974. From this investigation the United States Trade Representative (USTR) place US Tariffs on Chinese goods as per Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Here is a press release by the USTR listing the reasons for placing tariffs, and the key section from the press release. Specifically, the Section 301 investigation revealed:
In the bigger context of trade relations between US and China, China is not honoring its WTO commitments, and the USTR issued its yearly report to Congress in early February about the status of China compliance with its WTO commitments. The points that served as a basis for applying Section 301, also deviate from her commitments as Clinton's Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky paving the way for a trade war. Barshefsky argues that China's back sliding was happening as early as 2006-07, and believes the trade war could have been avoided has those commitments been enforced by previous administrations.
I will provide a brief overview of WTO membership and China's process of getting into the WTO.
WTO members can be divided into two groups, first are countries that joined in 1995-97, and were members of GATT, than there are the second group that joined after 1997. China joined in 2001. There is an argument that when China joined in 2001, she faced more stringent conditions than other developing countries that joined before, because the vast majority of developing countries were members of GATT, and were admitted to the WTO based on that previous membership in GATT. Here is Brookings Institute article published in 2001 titled "Issues in China’s WTO Accession"
This question is all the more puzzling because the scope and depth of demands placed on entrants into the formal international trading system have increased substantially since the formal conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations in 1994, which expanded the agenda considerably by covering many services, agriculture, intellectual property, and certain aspects of foreign direct investment. Since 1994, the international community has added agreements covering information technology, basic telecommunications services, and financial services. WTO membership now entails liberalization of a much broader range of domestic economic activity, including areas that traditionally have been regarded by most countries as among the most sensitive, than was required of countries entering the WTO’s predecessor organization the GATT.
The terms of China’s protocol of accession to the World Trade Organization reflect the developments just described and more. China’s market access commitments are much more far-reaching than those that governed the accession of countries only a decade ago. And, as a condition for membership, China was required to make protocol commitments that substantially exceed those made by any other member of the World Trade Organization, including those that have joined since 1995. The broader and deeper commitments China has made inevitably will entail substantial short-term economic costs.
What are the WTO commitments Barshefsky goes on about? When countries join the WTO, particularly those countries that weren't members of GATT and joined after 1997, they have to work toward fulfilling certain commitments. There are 4 key documents when countries make an accession to WTO membership, the working party report, the accession protocol paper, the goods schedule and service schedule.
In the working party report as part of the conclusion which specifies the commitment of each member country what they will do in areas that aren't compliant with WTO regulations on the date they joined. The problem there is no good enforcement mechanism for other members to force China to comply with these commitments. And WTO punishments are weak.
Here is the commitment paragraph for China
"The Working Party took note of the explanations and statements of China concerning its foreign trade regime, as reflected in this Report. The Working Party took note of the commitments given by China in relation to certain specific matters which are reproduced in paragraphs 18-19, 22-23, 35-36, 40, 42, 46-47, 49, 60, 62, 64, 68, 70, 73, 75, 78-79, 83-84, 86, 91-93, 96, 100-103, 107, 111, 115-117, 119-120, 122-123, 126-132, 136, 138, 140, 143, 145, 146, 148, 152, 154, 157, 162, 165, 167-168, 170-174, 177-178, 180, 182, 184-185, 187, 190-197, 199-200, 203-207, 210, 212-213, 215, 217, 222-223, 225, 227-228, 231-235, 238, 240-242, 252, 256, 259, 263, 265, 270, 275, 284, 286, 288, 291, 292, 296, 299, 302, 304-305, 307-310, 312-318, 320, 322, 331-334, 336, 339 and 341 of this Report and noted that these commitments are incorporated in paragraph 1.2 of the Draft Protocol. "
This is a tool by the WTO that list all the WTO commitment of each country in the working paper. In the goods and service schedule they have commitments for particular sectors. Here is the a press release by the WTO in September 2001, after successfully concluding talks for accession, and brief summary of key areas in which China hasn't fulfilled her commitments. Most of the commitments made by China were made to address its legacy as a non-market economy and involvement of state owned enterprises. In my opinion, I think the US government and investors grew increasingly frustrated with China, after 2007 not just because of China's back sliding, but relative to other countries who joined after 1997 like Vietnam, another non-market Leninist dictatorship. When comparing China's commitments to the WTO its best to compare her progress with those that joined after 1997, which were mostly ex-Soviet Republics.
NOTE: The Chinese media have for two decades compared any time the US has talked about China's currency manipulation or any other issue as a pretext for imposing tariffs on China to the Plaza Accords. I am very sure people will raise it here. My criticism of this view is fourfold. First, the US targeted not just Japan, but France, Britain and the UK as well. Secondly, the causes of the Japan lost decade were due largely to internal factors. Thirdly, Japan, UK, Britain and France in the 1980s, the Yuan isn't undervalued today. Lastly, in the USTR investigation, its China's practices that are the concern, not so much the trade deficit.

REASONS FOR TRUMPS UNILATERAL APPROACH

I feel that people shouldn't dismiss Trump's unilateral approach toward China for several reasons.
  1. The multilateral approach won't work in many issues such as the trade deficit, commercial espionage and intellectual property, because US and her allies have different interest with regard to these issues. Germany and Japan and trade surpluses with China, while the US runs a deficit. In order to reach a consensus means the West has to compromise among themselves, and the end result if the type of toothless resolutions you commonly find in ASEAN regarding the SCS. Does America want to "compromise" its interest to appease a politician like Justin Trudeau? Not to mention opposition from domestic interest. TPP was opposed by both Clinton and Trump during the election.
  2. You can't launch a geopolitical front against China using a newly formed trade block like the TPP. Some of the existing TPP members are in economic groups with China, like Malaysia and Australia.
  3. China has joined a multitude of international bodies, and at least in trade, these bodies haven't changed its behavior.
  4. Dealing with China, its a no win situation whether you use a tough multilateral / unilateral approach. If the US endorse a tough unilateral approach gives the impression that the US is acting like the British during the Opium War. If you take a concerted Western approach you are accused of acting like the 8 Powers Alliance in 1900.
  5. Trump was elected to deal with China which he and his supporters believe was responsible for the loss of millions manufacturing jobs when China joined the WTO in 2001. It is estimate the US lost 6 Million jobs, about 1/4 of US manufacturing Jobs. This has been subsequently advanced by some economists. The ball got rolling when Bill Clinton decided to grant China Most Favored Nation status in 1999, just a decade after Tiananmen.
  6. China hasn't dealt with issues like IP protection, market access, subsidies to state own companies and state funded industrial spying.
To his credit, Trump has said his aim was not to overthrow authoritarian governments, and that even applies to the likes of Iran. The Arab spring scared Russia and China, because the US for a brief moment placed the spread of democracy over its security interest.

UNDERSTANDING HOW THE US MAKES DECISIONS REGARDING CHINA

At this moment, China or the trade war isn't an area of great concern for the American public, among international issues it ranks lower than international terrorism, North Korea and Iran's nuclear program.
According to the survey, 39 percent of the country views China’s growing power as a “critical threat” to Americans. That ranked it only eighth among 12 potential threats listed and placed China well behind the perceived threats from international terrorism (66 percent), North Korea’s nuclear program (59 percent) and Iran’s nuclear program (52 percent). It’s also considerably lower than when the same question was asked during the 1990s, when more than half of those polled listed China as a critical threat. That broadly tracks with a recent poll from the Pew Research Center that found concern about U.S.-China economic issues had decreased since 2012.
In looking at how US conducts relations foreign policy with China, we should look at it from the three areas of most concern - economic, national security and ideology. Each sphere has their interest groups, and sometimes groups can occupy two spheres at once. Security experts are concerned with some aspects of China's economic actions like IP theft and industrial policy (China 2025), because they are related to security. In these sphere there are your hawks and dove. And each sphere is dominated by certain interest groups. That is why US policy toward China can often appear contradictory. You have Trump want to reduce the trade deficit, but security experts advocating for restrictions on dual use technology who are buttressed by people who want export restrictions on China, as a way of getting market access.
Right now the economic concerns are most dominant, and the hawks seem to dominate. The economic hawks traditionally have been domestic manufacturing companies and economic nationalist. In reality the hawks aren't dominant, but the groups like US Companies with large investment in China and Wall Street are no longer defending China, and some have turned hawkish against China. These US companies are the main conduit in which China's lobby Congress, since China only spends 50% of what Taiwan spends lobbying Congress.
THE ANGLO SAXON WORLD AND CHINA
I don't think many Chinese even those that speak English, have a good understanding Anglo-Saxon society mindset. Anglo Saxons countries, whether US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland are commerce driven society governed by sanctity of contracts. The English great philosophical contributions to Western philosophy have primarily to do with economics and politics like Adam Smith, John Locke, David Hume and Thomas Hobbes. This contrast with the French and Germans. Politics in the UK and to a lesser extent the US, is centered around economics, while in Mainland Europe its religion. When the Americans revolted against the British Empire in 1776, the initial source of the grievances were taxes.
Outside of East Asia, the rest of the World's relationship with China was largely commercial, and for United States, being an Anglosaxon country, even more so. In Southeast Asia, Chinese aren't known for high culture, but for trade and commerce. Outside Vietnam, most of Chinese loans words in Southeast Asian languages involve either food or money. The influence is akin to Yiddish in English.
Some people point to the Mao and Nixon meeting as great strategic breakthrough and symbol of what great power politics should look like. The reality is that the Mao-Nixon meeting was an anomaly in the long history of relations with China and the West. Much of China-Western relations over the last 500 years was conducted by multitudes of nameless Chinese and Western traders. The period from 1949-1979 was the only period were strategic concerns triumphed trade, because China had little to offer except instability and revolution. Even in this period, China's attempt to spread revolution in Southeast Asia was a threat to Western investments and corporate interest in the region. During the nadir of both the Qing Dynasty and Republican period, China was still engaged in its traditional commercial role. Throughout much of history of their relations with China, the goals of Britain and the United States were primarily economic,
IMAGINE JUST 10% OF CHINA BOUGHT MY PRODUCT
From the beginning, the allure of China to Western businesses and traders has been its sheer size I. One of the points that the USTR mentions is lack of market access for US companies operating in China, while Chinese companies face much less restrictions operating in the US.
This is supported by remarks by Henry Paulson and Charlene Barshefsky. As Paulson remarked
Trade with China has hurt some American workers. And they have expressed their grievances at the ballot box.
So while many attribute this shift to the Trump Administration, I do not. What we are now seeing will likely endure for some time within the American policy establishment. China is viewed—by a growing consensus—not just as a strategic challenge to the United States but as a country whose rise has come at America’s expense. In this environment, it would be helpful if the US-China relationship had more advocates. That it does not reflects another failure:
In large part because China has been slow to open its economy since it joined the WTO, the American business community has turned from advocate to skeptic and even opponent of past US policies toward China. American business doesn’t want a tariff war but it does want a more aggressive approach from our government. How can it be that those who know China best, work there, do business there, make money there, and have advocated for productive relations in the past, are among those now arguing for more confrontation? The answer lies in the story of stalled competition policy, and the slow pace of opening, over nearly two decades. This has discouraged and fragmented the American business community. And it has reinforced the negative attitudinal shift among our political and expert classes. In short, even though many American businesses continue to prosper in China, a growing number of firms have given up hope that the playing field will ever be level. Some have accepted the Faustian bargain of maximizing today’s earnings per share while operating under restrictions that jeopardize their future competitiveness. But that doesn’t mean they’re happy about it. Nor does it mean they aren’t acutely aware of the risks — or thinking harder than ever before about how to diversify their risks away from, and beyond, China.
What is interesting about Paulson's speech is he spend only one sentence about displaced US workers, and a whole paragraph about US business operating in China. While Kissinger writes books about China, how much does he contribute to both Democrats and the Republicans during the election cycle? China is increasingly makING it more difficult for US companies operating and those exporting products to China.

CONTINUED

submitted by weilim to IntlScholars [link] [comments]

Market Inefficiencies/Imbalances?

Hey everyone! I️’m curious if anyone would be so kind as to share some names of generic market or liquidity inefficiencies that can be exploited for trade strategies. Ideally for futures and equities, but definitely interested in forex. Only looking to research these inefficiencies, how to exploit them is something I respect as secret so no worries if you keep that part to yourself!
For instance, implied volatility plays a part in an imbalance that can be exploited, as the price goes down and implied volatility doesn’t increase, you’ve got an imbalance that can be used to predict likely future motion. Likewise, implied volatility drops but prices fall, another imbalance. Basically rely on mean reversion arbitrage using inputs of different market features that are notably out of balance from expected motion.
No details beyond the identified imbalances is needed, and of course l understand this begins to flirt with secrets, but really just looking for some inefficiencies that I️ can try to develop my own strategies around.
Thanks for all your advice!
submitted by imactually to algotrading [link] [comments]

Market Making Strategy

Market Making Strategy

https://preview.redd.it/u1jwr3pjndi31.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=e51f144990f475c4435e249f10f5582eab3765c1
The needs of Market Making Strategies
According to a research in Nebraska, Over the past few years, the rapid growth and success of automated techniques for e-commerce have resulted in their wide adoption in various domains beyond traditional B2B and B2C commodity markets.
As the role of the market-makers grows, the need for better understanding of the impact of the market-makers in the market increases as well.
Finally, the reinforcement learning strategy fulfills its tasks of both controlling the spread and maximizing utility.
History of market making
The automation of a market-makers’s functions was suggested more than three decades ago. Previously, several theoretical approaches, albeit with certainsimplifying assumptions, have been proposed to understand the effects of market makers on financial markets.
Designing a strategy based on :
  • Traders behavior
  • market-makers behavior
As a result, the rolls of a market makers are :
  1. Sets bid and offer prices within a certain currency pair
  2. Commits to accepting deals at these prices within certain constraints
  3. Takes the resulting exposure on to their own book (at least initially)
  4. Hosting, deployment, and maintenance
  5. Integrations with portfolio and execution management systems
  6. Access to historical order book data
Above all, this white paper mentioned different strategies about market making :
  • Basic arbitrage strategies: singe trading pair on two exchanges
  • Multiple exchange strategy: increase likelihood of identifying arbitrage opportunities by monitoring multiple exchanges (more than two)
  • Multiple trading pair strategies / triangular arbitrage: a common strategyin foreign exchange markets, using more than a single trading pair for capturingarbitrage. Increased complexity and additional trading pairs increase the likelihoodof the occurrence of a pricing dislocation.
  • Cross-Exchange Market Making: Cross-exchange market making combines elements from both arbitrage trading and basicmarket making in order to profit from differences in liquidity between trading pairs fromtwo (or more) different exchanges. In cross-exchange market making, a market maker trades on or two different exchanges and uses the best available bid and asks.
  • Re balancing :When employing a cross-exchange market making strategy, it is increasingly likely withthe passage of time that an imbalance in the direction of trading flows will accumulate.
Conclusion
This is the first step in performing a comparison of multiple market-maker strategies. In the future, we wish to explore different extensions of this work. First of all, we would like to propose and perform comparisons of other market-maker strategies such as using a minimax regret algorithm for price adjustments by the market-maker. Secondly, we would like to study the performance of the market makers with a more complex behavior, such as dynamically switching strategies based on past performance. This way, a better balance of maintaining marketquality and maximizing market-maker utilities may be obtained. And lastly, we would like to add various behavioral attributes to the market-maker model such as different risk attributes and making untruthful price revelations through bluffing for improving profits.
http://blog.quantvan.com/?p=720
submitted by Quantvan to u/Quantvan [link] [comments]

What Is “Arbitrage” Investing?

I’ll level with you. Up until about 3 or 4 years ago, I had never even heard the word arbitrage… And I’d been a financial advisor for like 5 years already!
So it doesn’t shock me if some of you reading this have no idea what it means either. And because of that, I want to define it to you.
Arbitrage in the dictionary means “the simultaneous purchase and sale of the asset in different markets to profit from unequal prices.”
In English, that means you buy a thing at one price and sell it as the same time for another price that is higher in a different market and you do it at the same time in order to make a profit on the difference between what you paid and what you sold it for.
For example, I buy a vehicle in Alabama at a low price and sell the same vehicle at the same time in Alaska at a higher price. And I make an instant profit.
You may ask, how is arbitrage different than just buying and selling things at a profit? Here is the key difference: with arbitrage, I am buying and selling at the same time. This means my profit is instant because it exists as a byproduct of my transaction.
With most buying and selling, the sale is not instant. This means I could be out some time and/or some money while I find someone to sell it to before I can make my profit.
Okay, so now that we now what arbitrage means, why is it important?
Well, it is a powerful way to invest. Arbitrage goes back for a long time! Banks, corporations, and Wall Street firms do it more than you could ever imagine. It is so powerful that they don’t really do any other type of investing.
How would you like to know exactly how to do this for yourself so that you can invest the way banks and the Top 1% do?
Great! That is exactly what I’m going to show you here!
First, I want to establish that there are two main ways of arbitrage investing. The first one we discussed already, which is buying and selling. An easy example of this could be with Forex markets. If I am trading in US Dollars and another currency is trading at a lower rate than normal and I knew it would be coming back up soon, I could buy a bunch of that currency with my USD in order to make an instant profit when it bounces back. This is done fairly regularly.
The other type of arbitrage investing is actually with debt. For this to work, you need to be pretty emotionally flat about debt. Otherwise, you are probably going to have some issues.
I could borrow money at 5%, knowing that I am going to make at least 6%. And I keep the difference in the middle.
That’s a simple way of doing it. Banks do this with your money. The interest they pay you on your account is actually a loan. You loaned them your money and that is why you’re getting interest. They are then investing your money to make more than what they have to pay you. I legitimately didn’t know this for most of my life. But it is true and it is extremely lucrative.
The key is, you need to be able to borrow money at a lower rate than what you’d make on it.
The third way you can do this is called double arbitrage. Let’s say that you had an asset that was already earning 6%. You then borrow it at 5%. You are making a 1% arbitrage on that money. But then the money you borrowed at 5% you will now loan to someone else at 8%. You’re making another 8% arbitrage spready because the 5% you’re paying is being covered by the 6% you are going to earn in the first place. So your total profit is 8% plus the other positive 1%. You are making 9% in arbitrage.
We do this with a tool called the Sacred Account. It is a whole life insurance policy that pays about a 6% dividend. You borrow at 5% and you loan it out on real estate deals that pay you 8-12%. Only ours is even more powerful.
You’re going to write the 5% you’re paying interest off on your taxes. You’re also going to use the 8-12% you’re making to pay your loan off early.
This means you’re making a 6% dividend. After tax deductions and early loan repayment you are probably paying closer to 3-4%. And you’re out there earning the 8-12% This means you are making 2-3% in arbitrage, plus another 8-12% on top of that.
Incredible right?
And the best thing about it is that this has nothing to do with the stock market. It has nothing to do with trading foreign currencies. It is secured by real assets and you know what you’re going to get.
This is the reason why the Sacred Account has been around for over 150 years and the concept of arbitrage investing has been around for thousands of years. It isn’t complicated, you have full control over the entire thing, and it costs you almost nothing to do.
If you’re reading this and you would like to learn how to get involved in this style of investing, then I want you to reach out to me. My team and I help do this with literally millions of dollars every single month for our clients and we would be happy to show you how. Click here to learn more!
Own Your Potential,
Jerry Fetta
CEO & Founder of Wealth DynamX
Jerry Fetta helps his clients gain more financial knowledge, make more money, keep more of it, and multiply what they keep.
If you feel like one or more of these areas is costing you money and opportunity right now, then get more information about Jerry Fetta and Wealth DynamX by going to www.WealthDynamX.com/contact
Wealth DynamX Home
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Let's speculate around CFT

As you may have read in the last Medium, referees of the new referral program are going to earn 25 CFT when they join the exchange. Let's all speculate and find what CFT is :D

–– 200% speculation beyond this point, leveraged x100 ––
CFT stands for Coss Fiat Token, the purpose of this token is to represent Fiat value on the exchange. The actual problem we're facing is the lack of liquidity on all Fiat pairs. Let's take ETH as an example: There are multiple ETH Fiat pairs: ETH/USD, ETH/EUR, ETH/GBP. The more the pairs the less liquidity we have. Why don't they merge all those pairs on only one pair ETH/CFT ?
"Da f*ck, I want to know how much I pay for ETH in my home country, not in CFT !"
Exactly, no one cares of CFT, and that's why you shouldn't even see it. Every user in the world will choose (or will have it auto assigned) his currency: someone living in Europe will have EUR displayed and someone in the USA will have USD displayed, but also someone living in India will have Indian Rupee displayed.
"1 CFT = 1 EUR = 1 USD ???"
No, the CFT will only be a stable coin, its rate will depend on your home currency based on Forex prices. For example we could have 10 CFT = 10 USD = 8.82 EUR etc.

Positive impact:
– Liquidity will increase a lot on Fiat pairs (now and especially when we get more customers trading as liquidity brings traders and traders brings liquidity).
– Scalable model to integrate many countries: "I'm from xxxx country, there is not any market in my home currecny, why can't I trade Fiat. Help?". If the conversion is made on client side, Coss can integrate a lot of countries, lot of currencies with ease (as long as they can receive and send Fiat through banks at some point).
– Absolutely needed for the POS (Point Of Sale) we're waiting for something around Q2 2019: if a little shop in Australia want to integrate Coss solution to accept payments in crypto, they shouldn't have to accept USD nor EUR, they should get AUD directly, same for any shop in any country around the world. Customer pays in BTC, gets automatically converted to CFT and then AUD on client side.

Negative impact / Concerns:
– Less opportunities to make arbitrages on Coss through different Fiat pairs (a little bit less volume).
– Probably not the possibility to own more than one Fiat currency at the same time (in reality you would hold them all).
– Your balance might change over time as prices on Forex moves, meaning your 132 CFT might be worth 132$ at some point and 131.53$ one day after, people will have to get used to that.
– Can create some confusion to some users, especially as websites like Coinmarketcap wouldn't know how to classify the prices, as CFT wouldn't be used somewhere else (at least for some time).
– Fees might increase as some conversions will be needed depending on the home country of the users (people might deposit a lot of USD and others withdrawing a lot of EUR, how would Coss manage that as it might become a real threat over time if the total CFT market cap grows to 10-50M$ for example, the model needs to be really solid.
– How would it be managed on the API, would people got the prices in Fiat like on the exchange, or would they get the order books in CFT and would need to do their own conversions depending on the currency they want to use (as a personal user of the API, it seems that this would need to be considered).

Other points:
– Even if Coss make a promotion on it, CFT needs to be backed by real Fiat, even if 25 CFT is probably "only" 2.5-10$, it needs to be paid by someone, if not it's a Ponzi scheme obviously. That means Coss Ltd has to pay for those tokens, and I guess they do have an acquisition price per customer in mind, so this is not something I'm really afraid off, but very important for long term viability of the Fiat model.
– Wouldn't be a bad thing to give Fiat to people if they do their KYC, they would at least be able to test the exchange and try trading crypto before even having to send anything.

Now it's your turn to speculate, hope you enjoyed the ride ;)
submitted by thaodehx to CossIO [link] [comments]

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Trading forex arbitrage is not recommended as a sole trading strategy in forex. It is also not advised for traders who have small equity accounts, because trading arbitrage requires a large amount of capital. Steps. Part 1 of 3: Understanding Arbitrage and The Forex Market 1. Understand the foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market, commonly referred to as forex, is an international ... Bei Forex Arbitrage handelt es sich um eine Handelsart, bei der versucht wird, minimale und kurzfristige Preisineffizienzen auszunutzen. Natürlich möchte ein risikoloser Gewinn gesichert werden, ohne Verluste machen zu müssen. Die Forex Arbitrage Händler ermöglichen auf diese Weise, dass der Markt eine effiziente Preisbildung sicherstellt. Die Bedingungen für den Handel umfassen jedoch ... Forex arbitrage calculator is one of the tools that provide arbitrageurs with real-time forex arbitrage opportunities. Third-parties and forex brokers usually sell the calculators. Arbitrage Trading Strategies. Two Currency Arbitrage Play. The two currency arbitrage trading strategy entails trading the same financial instrument in two separate markets, offering different bid and ask prices ... Forex arbitrage, or “two currency arbitrage,” is achieved when you buy a currency pair in an exchange that offers a lower price, and then sell the same pair in another exchange at a higher price. For example, assume you have accounts with two different brokers and they offer a slightly different price for EUR/USD; broker X has an exchange rate of 1.1010 while broker Y has a rate of 1.10 ... Example: Arbitrage Currency Trading . The current exchange rates of the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD pairs are 1.1837, 0.7231, and 1.6388, respectively. In this case, a forex trader could buy one ... Arbitrage trading is a trading strategy that sees traders or forex robots try to benefit from the price difference between two markets on a given security. The trading strategy works best in highly inefficient market systems, whereby there are two different prices for the same security. Understanding Arbitrage Trading Ein Forex Arbitrage Trading System kann auf vielerlei Weise betrieben werden, hat aber immer die gleiche Essenz: Beim Forex Arbitrage Handel geht es darum, Preisanomalien auszunutzen, zum Beispiel zwischen Spotzins und Devisen Futures. Ein Future ist eine Vereinbarung darüber, ein Instrument zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt und festen Preis in der Zukunft zu traden. Ein Forex Arbitrage Beispiel ...

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Learn To Trade Forex Using Arbitrage Forex Arbitrage Trading Opportunities

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